Monday, March 20, 2017

Disaster and Terrorism in Syria

The title alone of Berrebi & Ostwald made me think of the Syrian conflict. Before conflict broke out in 2011 a severe drought stuck Syria from 2006 to 2009. Researchers have also linked this drought to climate change. The Syrian government didn't do much to help those affected by the drought and according to the New York Times article linked bellow, it actually made the drought worse with bad agriculture and water policies. This increased the people's issues with the government which already existed. This drought also led to migrations from rural to urban areas which also raised tensions which came to head in 2011.  According to the article the drought served as a catalyst for the Syrian civil war.  
Arguably, this drought, which led to the Syrian conflict, played a role in the rise of ISIS. As the Berrebi & Ostwald article stated, instability is a breeding ground for terrorism. The rise ISIS was left unchecked since the government was occupied fighting the rebels and were therefore free to expand their territory which in turn increased their wealth, weapons, and personnel. Since Syria was/is unstable due to the civil war, ISIS grew and was able to take control of unstable areas. Furthermore, the instability of the region makes it easier for them to hide and recruit supporters.
Of course, the drought is only a fraction of the cause of the Syrian conflict, however, it did exacerbate the issues and tensions between the government and the people. There were warning signs before the conflict broke out in 2011 which begs the question of why other nations or groups didn't step in. Can anyone step in when they see a country becoming unstable in order to avoid a rise in terrorism? Or will that only create problems when there aren't any yet? Especially for the case in Syria, could could anything have been done? Western countries would've been unlikely to support the Assad regime but changing the government could've easily had disastrous results (i.e.: Libya and Iraq)

NY Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-caused-by-climate-change.html?_r=0

I found this article helpful when trying to figure out the Syrian Conflict:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/syrian-civil-war-guide-isis/410746/  

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